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With the government shutdown on hiatus, Atlas looks forward to getting back to a normal economic release schedule.  Of course, this presumes another shutdown isn’t just a few weeks away.  Last week we lost access to Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales from the Census Bureau.  So today we’ll look at an old friend of Atlas’, the National Association of Busines

Our economy is likely to move along at about the current pace for the next few quarters according to the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI).  Their December 2018 release edged down 0.1 percent after rising 0.2 percent in November.  Versus a year ago, this index is up 2.1 percent.

Before we get started on the details of December 2018 Industrial Production, I want to point out that the Federal Reserve’s latest release completes the first 100 years for this indicator.  It’s first publication covered data for January 1919.  The chart above is a copy of the first chart for industrial production.

The whole world was downgraded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).  Does that matter? Perhaps we should first consider what the IMF is.  It is an international organization headquartered in Washington D.C.

Prices paid by producers and wholesalers for final demand goods and services fell 0.2 percent in December 2018 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index (PPI).  This decline followed upticks of 0.6 percent and 0.1 percent in October and November respectively.  With all of the months counted, PPI rose 2.5 percent last year, matching 2017’s gain.

Price changes were rather minor in December 2018 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Their Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1 percent at the headline and increased 1.9 percent in the past year.  Removing the two volatile components (food and energy) leaves the core-CPI figure which increased 0.2 percent and 2.2 percent during the month and year respectively. 

Once again, our economy is causing more attention to be paid to the Federal Reserve than normal.  As Atlas has written (click here, here, and her

Small business optimism continued waning according to data from the National Federation of Independent Business.  Their 10-component index slipped to 104.4 from 104.8 in November.  After starting a new uptrend in November 2016, this indicator moved steadily ahead until September of last year.  Now, it has declined for four consecutive months.