Retail Sales

Retail sales improved in November 2019 according to the Census Bureau.  This 0.2 percent gain to $528.0 billion is on the heels of October’s upwardly revised uptick of 0.4 percent.  Versus a year ago, sales are up $17.1 billion or 3.3 percent. There was plenty of good news in the release, but as you’ll see later, one dark lining to this silver cloud.

Retail sales gained back all the prior period’s losses and then some in October 2019 according to the latest data from the Census Bureau.  This indicator rose $526.5 billion to start the final quarter after declining $525.2 billion in September.  Year-over-year, retail sales are up 3.1 percent.

There wasn’t a lot to celebrate in the September 2019 Retail Sales release from the Census Bureau; however, Atlas will find a way to cheer it on later in this note.  But first we must deal with the negatives.  The headline is a good place to start as the overall statistic dropped 0.3 percent, giving back most of the prior period’s 0.4 percent gain.

In yesterday’s note (click here to review) we examined the Census Bureau’s data on Retail Sales.  In short, they were weak.  The headline tally declined 1.2 percent (the largest drop in nine years), and minus signs accompanied most of the components. 

Americans consume a lot.  So much so that just one economic indicator represents roughly two-thirds of our nation’s output: retail sales.  Unfortunately for the economy, the Census Bureau’s December 2018 iteration of this indicator was weak.  While adjusted for seasonality but not prices, receipts were down 1.2 percent as last year ended.

Retails sales decelerated in August 2018 according to data from the Census Bureau.  Retail receipts grew 0.1 percent in the period after gaining 0.7 percent in July.  And that’s the rub; July’s tally was upwardly revised from an already strong 0.5 percent count in the initial report.  This strength gave August a tough comparison, so even though the month-over-month gr