Friday

We’ve all learned that the shortest distance between two points is a straight line. That tends to lead one to believe that the scenic path (e.g., longer route) will take more time to travel. But what if that is not the case? As it turns out, Newtonian physics shows this intuition is wrong.

Metaphorically, the Federal Reserve is like a crane operator for the American economy. They are trying to deliver the economy to a sweet spot that is neither too hot nor too cool. The boom of the crane helps move an object horizontally while the hook causes vertical movement.

This note was on the calendar because it is that time of year, but then Atlas had to rip up the script when the war in Iran started because seasonal issues alone were no longer driving the price of fuel higher.  Initially this note was going to help remind readers that changes to the blend of fuel would be taking place soon as the weather warms.

Periodically rumors about the demise of the U.S. dollar crop up, often making their way through the cesspool of social media. Atlas recently came across one such claim and thought you might have as well. After looking into it, the death of the U.S. dollar has once again been greatly exaggerated.

Atlas has been noticing recently what is called the K-shape of the American economy. In short, a portion of the economy, and a relatively small segment at that, has fared relatively well while a larger ratio of the population seems to be having a different experience.

Tariffs are difficult for those paying them.

The calendar has flipped, the fireworks have faded, and most resolutions have already been broken.  A new year can bring a sense of renewal, or at least the illusion of a fresh start.  But in the world of federal policy, the first few days of a new year can give way to what was.

Happy New Year! Today is the first business day of 2026, so let’s spend some time talking about businesses. Last year was a strong one for some of the most noteworthy companies. Rising revenues coupled with improved productivity helped usher in large gains in profitability.