Chicago Fed

Comprehensive and frequent are two of the best characteristics for an economic indicator.  The Chicago Branch of the Federal Reserve produces one that has both attributes: The National Activity Index.

April 2019 Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Economic growth slowed in January 2019 according to the latest data from the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI).  This index of 85 components dipped to minus 0.43 from after hitting +0.05 in December 2018.  Since this indicator moves quite a bit each month, Atlas pay attention to the three-month moving average; it fell to 0.0 (a reading which indicates moderate growth) from 0

Tracking economic output has been difficult lately since so many indicators are measured by various government entities.  Even though the government shutdown is over, there are large gaps in data.

National output growth moderated in July 2018 according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s National Activity Index.  This comprehensive indicator managed to hold above zero, reaching 0.13 to start the third quarter.

After a strong uptick in February, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index took a bit of a breather in March 2018.  This indicator, which looks at 85 components, decelerated to +0.10 versus +0.98.  Adding to the tepid tone of the release, the three-month moving average slowed to +0.27 from +0.31 a month earlier. 

America’s economy was relatively steady in January 2018 according to the latest Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI).  This reading slowed to 0.12 from the downwardly revised count of 0.14 (originally 0.27).

Output accelerated during December 2017 according to data from the Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI).  This comprehensive indicator rose to +0.27 from the downwardly revised count of +0.11 (originally +0.15).  Additionally, the three-month moving average held relatively steady at +0.42 versus +0.43 in November, suggesting the economic expansion is not overheated.