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America’s output in the final quarter of last year was better than many anticipated.  A consensus estimate from Bloomberg was expecting the annualized rate of output to reach 2.2 percent, and the final calculation of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast expected just 1.8 percent.  However, the earliest estimate suggests output increased by 2.6 percent to e

Economic growth slowed in January 2019 according to the latest data from the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI).  This index of 85 components dipped to minus 0.43 from after hitting +0.05 in December 2018.  Since this indicator moves quite a bit each month, Atlas pay attention to the three-month moving average; it fell to 0.0 (a reading which indicates moderate growth) from 0

Monetary policies executed by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are designed to fulfill our central bank’s dual mandate: full-employment and price stability.  What the heck do those terms mean? 

Existing home sales suffered their third consecutive setback.  According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), transactions fell 1.2 percent in January 2019 to 4.94 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis; this is the worst reading since November 2015.

Here is another indicator delayed by the lapse in federal funding a couple of months ago.  However, the Census Bureau is confident the information collected was adequate to produce the report.  They went so far as to disclose at the top of the report that “…coverage rates were at or above normal levels for this release.”  So here we go!

Industrial production took a hit to start 2019 according to the latest release from the Federal Reserve.  Their indicator which covers everything physically made in America declined 0.6 percent in January.  This set back followed a downwardly revised tally of +0.1 percent (originally +0.3 percent) in December.  Not only was the monthly tally negative, but the trend decelerat

Prices paid by wholesalers and producers declined to start this year according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Their measure of Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped marginally, falling 0.1 percent in January 2019 and matching the prior month’s decline as well.  Year-over-year, this price proxy has gained a tame 2.0 percent.

In yesterday’s note (click here to review) we examined the Census Bureau’s data on Retail Sales.  In short, they were weak.  The headline tally declined 1.2 percent (the largest drop in nine years), and minus signs accompanied most of the components. 

In yesterday’s note (click here to review) we examined the Census Bureau’s data on Retail Sales.  In short, they were weak.  The headline tally declined 1.2 percent (the largest drop in nine years), and minus signs accompanied most of the components. 

Americans consume a lot.  So much so that just one economic indicator represents roughly two-thirds of our nation’s output: retail sales.  Unfortunately for the economy, the Census Bureau’s December 2018 iteration of this indicator was weak.  While adjusted for seasonality but not prices, receipts were down 1.2 percent as last year ended.