Federal Reserve

A new documentary was released last month called Capturing Bigfoot. Atlas’ film critics have yet to review the 103-minute piece, but its title inspired this note.  In the film, the famous Patterson-Gimlin clip (who knew it had such a formal name) is revisited along with newly discovered footage.

Metaphorically, the Federal Reserve is like a crane operator for the American economy. They are trying to deliver the economy to a sweet spot that is neither too hot nor too cool. The boom of the crane helps move an object horizontally while the hook causes vertical movement.

This note was on the calendar because it is that time of year, but then Atlas had to rip up the script when the war in Iran started because seasonal issues alone were no longer driving the price of fuel higher.  Initially this note was going to help remind readers that changes to the blend of fuel would be taking place soon as the weather warms.

Periodically rumors about the demise of the U.S. dollar crop up, often making their way through the cesspool of social media. Atlas recently came across one such claim and thought you might have as well. After looking into it, the death of the U.S. dollar has once again been greatly exaggerated.

In Shakespeare’s Romeo and Juliet, Juliet reflects that “a rose by any other name would smell as sweet.” In other words, the essence of the thing (in her case Romeo), not the label, is what truly matters.

The Federal Reserve left the door ajar at Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, not fully open nor closed, but just wide enough to keep markets guessing about the next steps.

Markets like stability whether its economic, geopolitical or otherwise.  Stability helps buyers and sellers agree on the current and potential future values of a variety of financial and real estate assets, thus driving their prices.  As stability wanes, the spectrum of expected outcomes stretches, inviting a broader range of opinions about potential future values.

Welcome to Friday, jobs day.  Your federal government may be shut down, but Atlas is not.  A quick glance at the economic calendar will show you that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is supposed to release the September 2025 labor report later this morning.  This would in turn cause Atlas to send you a note about the release’s details.  That initial condition was not met

The Federal Reserve heavily influences the American economy.  Every six weeks the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gathers to determine the correct course for monetary policy; they do this by setting the Fed Funds Rate (the amount charged for overnight loans between banks).  In short, they are trying to strike a balance between controlling inflation and supporting the labor market

While they are not duking it out like King Arthur and the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail, President Donald Trump and Federal Open Market Committee Chair Jerome Powel appear to be at odds.  Both sides are searching for their own holy grail, and their paths keep crossing.