Federal Reserve

When Atlas sat to write this note, the working title was “What a Difference a Day Makes,” but less than 24 hours later, that tagline no longer fit.

For you kids out there who may be too young to remember ancient American history, please allow me a moment to turn back to the days when Arkansan Bill Clinton was president. It was toward the end of the last century when he asked, “You mean to tell me that the success of the economic program and my re-election hinges on the Federal Reserve and a bunch of f***ing bond traders?”

Federal student loan defaults are reaching pre-pandemic levels according to data from the New York Federal Reserve’s Q1 2026 Household Debt and Credit Report. During the pandemic, payments on many educational loans were paused, offering those still owing money for college costs time to steady their balance sheets. The three-year pause ended in October 2023.

America remains in the virtuous portion of the business cycle, even as headlines point to global conflicts, inflationary pressures, and ongoing contention in our nation’s capital. That said, economic growth is not being felt evenly across the country. Still, moments of collective celebration may be helping sustain momentum in an otherwise uncertain environment.

Regimes can only last so long. Eventually, wars, elections, or expiring appointments usher in change. Some changes are abrupt, and while it could be too early to tell, hints that the Federal Reserve is in the midst of a jarring transition right now are mounting. The first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting with Kevin Warsh at the helm is now behind us.

Two things are hot topics in Washington D.C. these days: artificial intelligence (AI) and the Federal Reserve. Just Tuesday an announcement was made about the newest Anthropic model, Mythos, getting into the hands of nefarious actors. This is an AI model which has discovered many cybersecurity vulnerabilities across many platforms which were previously unknown.

A new documentary was released last month called Capturing Bigfoot. Atlas’ film critics have yet to review the 103-minute piece, but its title inspired this note.  In the film, the famous Patterson-Gimlin clip (who knew it had such a formal name) is revisited along with newly discovered footage.

Metaphorically, the Federal Reserve is like a crane operator for the American economy. They are trying to deliver the economy to a sweet spot that is neither too hot nor too cool. The boom of the crane helps move an object horizontally while the hook causes vertical movement.

This note was on the calendar because it is that time of year, but then Atlas had to rip up the script when the war in Iran started because seasonal issues alone were no longer driving the price of fuel higher.  Initially this note was going to help remind readers that changes to the blend of fuel would be taking place soon as the weather warms.

Periodically rumors about the demise of the U.S. dollar crop up, often making their way through the cesspool of social media. Atlas recently came across one such claim and thought you might have as well. After looking into it, the death of the U.S. dollar has once again been greatly exaggerated.