Business Cycle

Atlas likes to poke fun at the Federal Reserve from time to time because it employs so many PhDs yet doesn’t have complete mastery over how the economy behaves.  One only needs to think about the “transitory” period of inflation as an example of their limited power.  You may recall that Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee, used the term for mont

A person's daily life is influenced by a complex interplay of various cycles.

Goldilocks was tired and hungry when she came across the Bears’ home.  Wanting to catch up on some sleep, she first tried Papa Bear’s bed, but it was too hard.  Then she jumped into Mama Bear’s, but it was too soft.

It kind of makes sense that income and spending are linked.  Think of your own household.

While there are more humane approaches to detecting carbon monoxide available today, coal mines used canaries beginning in 1911 at the advice of Scottish scientist John Haldane.  Carbon monoxide is a colorless and odorless gas that causes suffocation when it is concentrated in the air, so having a way to detect it in a mine was lifesaving if you weren’t a songbird.  Once the chi

So far, the banking challenges of 2023 have been far from catastrophic.

Telling stories is what humans do.  No two people have an exact telling about the same event.  Thoughts on the economy are no different.  There is a “Truth” but none of us have the luxury of knowing all.  Instead, we each have our own truths.  These aren’t intentionally deceptive.  Instead, they become manufactured and colored by our own experienc

Weather and season often offer wonderful metaphors for economics.  Recent storms sweeping the nation are no exception.  Here in Southern California, we’ve had a real winter (by California standards, of course) for the first time in what seems like years; take the above photo from Jerry S.

Economic indicators come is three varieties, differentiated by their timing.  Some offer an insight into the future.  We call these leading indicators; for instance, new orders data help us see a bit over the horizon.  Others tell us more about the here and now; these are coincident indicators like industrial production or personal income.  Finally, there are lagging indicat

Superlatives are easy to use but difficult to defend, so Atlas won’t use one here.  We are willing, however, to use a technical phrase when describing 2022: it sucked.  Right out of the gate, the market peaked on the first trading day of the year and then trended lower for the remainder.  A similar pattern developed in the bond market.  Providing the other bookend for