January 2020 Durable Goods Orders
Submitted by Atlas Indicators Investment Advisors on March 12th, 2020
Prices are dynamic and governed by the irrefutable law of supply and demand. In this global economy with complex logistics, supply levels often move up or down due to exogenous shocks like weather or geopolitics. On the other side, consumer preferences change, impacting demand. One week an item is all the rage and prices are rising. The next, there’s a surfeit of t
Last week Atlas posted this note regarding the Edelman Trust Barometer illustrating Americans’ distrust of the media, corporations, non-government organizations (NGOs), and the government itself.
Prices continued rising at a moderate pace in December 2019 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Their Consumer Price Index rose 0.2 percent in the final 31 days of the decade. This final uptick helped push the year-over-year tally to 2.3 percent which is faster than the 1.9 percent rate of change in 2018.
Small business confidence remains high by longer-term standards but has been waning relative to its all-time high. The National Federation of Independent Business’ Optimism Index declined two points in December 2019 to 102.7 after rising 2.3 points in November. Despite all the recent gyrations, this index has moved very little over the past three years.
America’s labor situation has been one of the economy’s highlights since it began recovering after the Great Recession. Last year (2019) ended the decade by adding 2.11 million net new jobs, including December’s uptick of 145,000 according the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The unemployment rate held steady at 3.5 percent.
America’s Treasury Department removed the designation of currency manipulator from China five months after the moniker was given. This seems reasonable since the two countries were in the process of negotiating the now-signed “phase one” portion of a larger trade agreement. Pejorative monikers probably don’t make deliberations easier.
America’s trade balance improved in November 2019 according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The nation’s deficit improved to $43.1 billion from the upwardly revised count of $46.9 billion (originally $47.2 billion). In short, both sides of the ledger improved for America as imports fell while exports increased.