Bear Speeds

Bears come in a variety of characteristics.  And no, I’m not counting the cute little koala bears (they’re marsupials).  Along with their size and color differences, they have a range of top speeds.  This is important in case you’re ever trying to outrun one by yourself.  If you have a partner with you, just outrun him/her.  But I digress.  Polar bears have a top speed of around 25 mph.  Not bad, but its black bear cousin can reach roughly 30 mph.  Grizzlies are even faster, clocking in at nearly 35 mph.   Kodiaks push the limit even further, occasionally reaching 40 mph during quick sprints.

These are fast creatures, but even the Kodiak marvels at the quickness of the latest stock market bear.  As of March 11, 2020, the most recent bull market which started on March 09, 2009 ended.  Bear markets occur when prices fall 20 percent from their recent high. 

According to this article, the average time it takes Dow Jones Industrial Average to reach bear-market territory is 255 days, and the median is 156.  However, this bear was much faster than average.  After an all-time closing high on February 12^th, this widely watch index was overrun by a bear just 19 trading days later.  This market blew past the second fastest bear.  For some additional perspective, bears pounced on the market after 36 trading days in 1929, now the second fastest pace.

Bear markets tend to be short-lived compared to their bull counterparts.  There is not a bell which is rung at the end of the downturn.  Instead there tends to be a series of patterns which develop as early risk takers start accumulating shares of stocks once again.  Atlas will continue monitoring market internals, watching for the motif to emerge before we start adding risk back into our managed portfolio.