One at a Time Please.

Time is what keeps everything from happening at once.

If the above quote from character Tubby in Ray Cummings’ short story from 1921, Time Professor, is correct, one might conclude time is weakening.  We are living through a period when a lot is happening all at once.  Our globe is facing a pandemic like the Spanish Flu in 1918.  Simultaneously, America has protests and at times destructive riots analogous to those of the late 1960s.  And our Federal Reserve is creating money out of thin air like it did while supporting the economy during the financial crisis which led to the Great Recession.  All of this at once!

Despite the confluence of medical, social, and economic forces which have challenged America’s economy this year, we have reasons for cautious optimism.  Our economy is already starting to turn around.  It is the trajectory of the recovery that is uncertain; Atlas’ own biases lead us to believe it will be shallow.  In part we remain circumspect about our nation’s growth prospects because it is unclear how long the current partial economic reopening will last.   Americans are still grappling with whether their previous standard of living takes priority over potential future risks to lives.

As we noted here last week, recent monetary and fiscal policies will take time to permeate the economy.  However, they should provide at least a short-term positive impact.  Longer-term consequences (good or bad) are largely unknowable for now.  Time may have let several shocks to the economy slip in simultaneously, but it has once again presented itself as the bouncer of events, so patience is once again required as we wait for supportive measures to establish themselves.