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Many magazine covers and article headlines might lead folks to believe robots are taking over the labor market. Heck, even Atlas has written notes regarding expectations of greater automation in our economy. While firms have been able to produce cool robot videos like this one, there seems to be something missing in the data. This note will explore a couple of the glaring omissions.

This is a copy of an email sent to clients in June 2017 before the notes were being published here.  I am posting it here now since I refer to it in the note for August 25, 2017.  ~Christopher

New homes sales were weak in July 2017 according to data from the Census Bureau.  Signed contracts declined to 571,000 on an annualized basis, falling 59,000 units.  However, there were substantial upgrades to the prior two months’ tallies adding a combined 30,000 to May and June.  Notwithstanding the upgrades to the prior periods, July’s figure is the worst of the ye

Economic output moved roughly in-line with its historical trend in July according to data from the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI). This comprehensive gauge of the economy declined to -0.01 as the second half of 2017 got underway, down from +0.16 in June.

America’s economic expansion should continue in the months ahead according to the July 2017 release of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI).  July’s uptick of 0.3 percent follows an impressive gain of 0.6 percent in the prior period, suggesting June’s jump was more than just a one-off fluke.  This broad collection of forward looking indicators ev

America’s output of physically made goods rose for a second consecutive month in July 2017 according to Industrial Production figures produced by the Federal Reserve.  Rising 0.2 percent, this cyclically sensitive indicator decelerated from 0.4 percent in June.  Despite the monthly slowdown, its year over year tally reached 2.2 percent, the best level since January 2015.

America is months away from one of my favorite times of the year, Girl Scout cookie season.  Each year I buy Thin Mints.  When sitting down to enjoy them, I finish them quickly, often not realizing how many have disappeared until the box is nearly gone.  While I don’t own a green sash, I probably deserve a badge for the number of boxes of Thin Mints I’ve devoured in m

Retail sales were strong in July 2017 according to the Census Bureau.  Month-over-month, this important indicator jumped 0.6 percent.  Compared to a year earlier, transactions increased 4.2 percent.   Not only did the second half of the year get off to quick start, June’s tally was revised upward substantially; first reported as falling 0.2 percent, a more complete cou

Inflation remained relatively level in July 2017 according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  After being unchanged in June, this price proxy increased just 0.1 percent to start the second half of this year.  Compared to July of 2016, this index is 1.7 percent higher.  Core-CPI (which excludes food and energy) rose 0.1 percent, matching the up

Prices paid by producers and wholesalers declined in July 2017 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Falling 0.1 percent in the period, this is the first contraction since August of last year.  In addition to monthly weakness, the year-over-year statistic slowed for a second consecutive month to 1.9 percent from 2.0 percent in June.