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America’s current economic expansion, which started in June 2009, has been perplexing.  Our nation’s expansion has been described by some as a “New Normal” after old economic relationships have proven less reliable than before.  For instance, our economy’s pace of growth since the end of the Great Recession has been sluggish even though the Feder

Orders for wares expected to last longer than three years took an expected tumble in July 2017 according to the Durable Goods Report from the Census Bureau. As Atlas wrote here, June’s outsized jump was led by soaring orders for aircraft (up 129.3 percent in period; downwardly revised from 131 percent), but this was not repeated a month later.

Existing home sales paralleled the new home market’s weakness in July 2017 according to data from the National Association of Realtors.  The sales pace declined 1.3 percent to 5.44 million units as the second half of this year started.  This decline follows June’s downwardly revised tally of minus -2.0 percent (originally -1.8 percent).  Notwithstanding the recent wea

Many magazine covers and article headlines might lead folks to believe robots are taking over the labor market. Heck, even Atlas has written notes regarding expectations of greater automation in our economy. While firms have been able to produce cool robot videos like this one, there seems to be something missing in the data. This note will explore a couple of the glaring omissions.

This is a copy of an email sent to clients in June 2017 before the notes were being published here.  I am posting it here now since I refer to it in the note for August 25, 2017.  ~Christopher

New homes sales were weak in July 2017 according to data from the Census Bureau.  Signed contracts declined to 571,000 on an annualized basis, falling 59,000 units.  However, there were substantial upgrades to the prior two months’ tallies adding a combined 30,000 to May and June.  Notwithstanding the upgrades to the prior periods, July’s figure is the worst of the ye

Economic output moved roughly in-line with its historical trend in July according to data from the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI). This comprehensive gauge of the economy declined to -0.01 as the second half of 2017 got underway, down from +0.16 in June.

America’s economic expansion should continue in the months ahead according to the July 2017 release of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI).  July’s uptick of 0.3 percent follows an impressive gain of 0.6 percent in the prior period, suggesting June’s jump was more than just a one-off fluke.  This broad collection of forward looking indicators ev

America’s output of physically made goods rose for a second consecutive month in July 2017 according to Industrial Production figures produced by the Federal Reserve.  Rising 0.2 percent, this cyclically sensitive indicator decelerated from 0.4 percent in June.  Despite the monthly slowdown, its year over year tally reached 2.2 percent, the best level since January 2015.

America is months away from one of my favorite times of the year, Girl Scout cookie season.  Each year I buy Thin Mints.  When sitting down to enjoy them, I finish them quickly, often not realizing how many have disappeared until the box is nearly gone.  While I don’t own a green sash, I probably deserve a badge for the number of boxes of Thin Mints I’ve devoured in m