Revised Second Quarter 2017 Gross Domestic Product

America’s economy grew faster in the second quarter of 2017 than initially tallied according to data regarding gross domestic product (GDP) from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  After more complete information was collected, it now appears that output increased at the fastest pace since the first quarter of 2015.  Growing 3.0 percent on an inflation-adjusted annualized basis (initially reported as 2.6 percent), the rate of change was more than double the 1.2 percent growth from January through March of this year.

Upgrades to the two largest components pushed the headline figure higher.  First, consumer expenditures were greater than initially estimated.  Rising 3.3 percent compared to the advanced estimate of just 2.8 percent, spending on both goods and services were upwardly revised.  Second, businesses invested more in the period; outlays for structures, equipment, and intellectual property products were all greater than the earliest estimate indicated. 

Even though there is at least one more revision ahead for the second quarter GDP statistic, attention is starting to turn to the current period which ends on September 30^th.  The Atlanta branch of the Federal Reserve publishes an estimate for current quarter growth which is updated frequently.  While the economists responsible for the model will update it later today and tomorrow, as of this writing, they believe output will accelerate to 3.4 percent.  Atlas is not enamored by these types of point estimates, but we pay attention to its trend, and it argues currently that the virtuous portion of the business cycle is firmly footed.  Additionally, various forward looking indicators suggest America’s output will continue growing during the next several months.