August 2017 Consumer Attitudes

Popular measures of consumer attitudes were positive in August 2017. Those polled by the Conference Board for the Consumer Confidence tally were much more enthusiastic than a month earlier as were the folks interviewed by the University of Michigan for Consumer Sentiment figures. With a reading of 122.9, Conference Board respondents put the index at its second highest level since December 2000, only March of this year was better. Consumer Sentiment reached 96.8, up from 93.4 in July.

Americans felt better about the here and now. Those polled by the Conference Board indicated jobs were more plentiful in the period; a category called jobs-hard-to-get fell 1.4 percentage points to 17.3 percent while those describing jobs as plentiful increased 2.2 points to 35.4 percent. The University suggested enthusiasm over income potential outweighed recent news headlines like the violence in Virginia and the tension in North Korea.
Optimism extended further out along the time horizon as well. The outlook for work continued advancing according to the Conference Board; Americans believe jobs will continue growing as will wages. Consumer Sentiment’s expectations category jumped from 80.5 in July to 87.7 in August. Both surveys indicate inflation is not a top concern for Americans at this time.

Like many of the indicators Atlas follows, the recent hurricanes will probably make interpreting these two indicators more difficult in months and quarters ahead. Other major hurricanes have caused this pair to decline, but it remains to be seen whether or not the consumers’ behavior is materially changed this time. For now we have to use the information available; data collected before the two strong exogenous shocks (Harvey and Irma) to the Gulf Coast of America suggest greater consumption in the back half of this year.