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All models are wrong, but some are useful – George E. P. Box

Sales of new homes fell in August 2017 according to the Census Bureau.  Transaction volume declined 3.4 percent versus July, falling to 560,000 units on an annualized basis.  Compared to a year earlier, 1.2 percent fewer contracts were signed in the period, declining for a second consecutive time.

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) contained evidence of economic slowing in August 2017.  This comprehensive indicator fell from 0.03 (upwardly revised from minus 0.01) to minus 0.31 and now sits at the lowest level since August 2016.  Moe importantly, its three-month moving average dropped to minus 0.04; this is the second time this calendar year it has fallen b

Economic activity should continue advancing in the near-term according to data from the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI).  This forward-looking indicator improved 0.4 percent in August 2017 after advancing 0.3 percent in July.  In the six months ending August 2017, the LEI advanced 2.3 percent (roughly 4.7 percent on an annualized basis), an improvement relative t

Transaction volume slowed in the existing homes market during the month of August 2017 according to the National Association of Realtors.  Declining 1.7 percent, there were 5.35 million units sold on an annualized basis, down from 5.44 million in July.  Compared to a year earlier, transactions gained just 0.2 percent, the slowest pace since August 2016.

Transaction volume slowed in the existing homes market during the month of August 2017 according to the National Association of Realtors.  Declining 1.7 percent, there were 5.35 million units sold on an annualized basis, down from 5.44 million in July.  Compared to a year earlier, transactions gained just 0.2 percent, the slowest pace since August 2016.

As Britain negotiates its exit from prior trading contracts as a member of the European Union, it has begun to forge new economic relations and reinforce others. On September 20, 2017, the island nation held a signing ceremony at the U.S. Department of State marking an $88 million commitment to participate in a particle physics experiment.

Consumers were unwilling to increase their outlays in August 2017 according to the latest data from the Census Bureau.  In fact, they spent less in the period than in July.  Including the 0.2 percent monthly decline, the year-over-year statistic decelerated to 3.2 percent from 3.5 percent at the start of the third quarter.  Adding to the dour tone of this release, July’s ta

Industrial Production is the latest economic indicator to disappoint.  American output of all physically made goods declined 0.9 percent in August 2017 according to the Federal Reserve.  This setback follows six consecutive months of increases.  The central bank estimates Hurricane Harvey had an impact on the figure, reducing the total by 0.75 percentage point. 

Prices increased for Americans in August 2017 according to the Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statics.  Rising 0.4 percent, this latest increase follows an uptick of 0.1 percent in July.  Year-over-year, this price proxy increased 1.9 percent, accelerating from 1.7 percent a month earlier.  Core inflation which excludes food and energy increased at a more subdued p