Blog

Two months into America’s fiscal year 2018 and our nation’s deficit has climbed 10.6 percent versus a year earlier according to data from the Department of Treasury.  Your government’s shortfall was $138.5 billion in November 2017.  Both receipts and outlays increased versus a year ago, symptomatic of an improving economy. 

Prices paid by producers and wholesalers rose in November according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Their Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 0.4 percent in the penultimate month alone.  This rapid monthly move pushed the year-over-year trend to 3.1 percent, up from 2.8 percent in October.

Small business optimism is at multi-decade high according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).  This measure of enthusiasm has not reached this level in over 34 years, and it has only reached a similar reading one other time in the survey’s 44-year history.  The optimism index reached 107 during November 2017, a gain of 3.7 points. 

Janet Yellen, the Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, has very little explaining left to do.  She presided over her penultimate Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, followed by a press conference; her final meeting, coming at the end of January, is not scheduled to include news organizations.

America’s trade deficit worsened as the fourth quarter of 2017 got underway.  According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, our nation’s trading shortfall reached $48.7 billion, up from the downwardly revised chasm of $44.9 billion in September (originally $43.5 billion).  In short, the two components of trade (imports and exports) moved in opposite directions.

After more data were collected from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a revised report on third-quarter 2017 productivity and unit labor costs was released.  Productivity was unchanged in the revision, and unit labor costs figures were revised marginally.  Output per labor hour held steady at 3.0 percent in the revision, but this is nearly double the pace in the prior quarter.  Uni

Economic activity remained strong in November 2017 according to the latest data from the Institute for Supply Management.  Both the goods and services sides of the economy maintained tallies well over 50.0, the level considered neither expansionary nor contractionary.  This continued strength bodes well for the fourth quarter figure on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which will be releas

America’s labor market remained strong during November 2017 according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  After adding 244,000 in October (downwardly revised from 268,000), employers increased payrolls by 228,000 in the penultimate month of the year.  Our nation’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 percent, tied the lowest level since December 2000. 

Natural disasters make headlines each year, and 2017 has been no exception.  To the best of my knowledge, friends of Atlas have escaped relatively unscathed despite living in Florida, Texas, New Orleans, California, and on the east coast.  It is The Golden State’s turn to lead the stories above the fold as Santa Ana winds fuel fires from Ventura to Los Angeles to San Bernardino.

Two popular measures of consumer attitudes were mixed in November 2017, but they both remain relatively elevated.  Consumer Confidence put out by the Conference Board hit a new 17-year high, reaching 129.5.  Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan declined to 98.5 from 100.7, the highest peak of the last decade.