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Headline figures were mixed on Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their employment report.  According to the establishment survey, our economy lost 33,000 jobs to end the third quarter of 2017.  However, the household survey estimates the unemployment rate declined to the lowest level since January 2001, 4.2 percent from 4.3 percent in August.   The BL

While politicians in America struggle to find nice things to say about one another, global alliances are shifting. Of course, politicians are simply trying to get reelected, so their rhetoric and voting records reflect (and rightfully so in representative democracy) their constituents. According to this 2014 study from the Pew Research Center, America is becoming more polarized.

Income and outlays improved in August 2017 according to the most recent data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal income rose 0.2 percent or $28.6 billion. Subtracting taxes, disposable personal income (DPI) increased $14.9 billion or 0.1 percent.

Consumers seemed to be marginally less happy in September than in August according to two popular surveys of consumer attitudes.  Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board dropped to 119.8 versus the downwardly revised count of 120.4 (originally 122.9) in August.  Data collected by the University of Michigan for Consumer Sentiment resulted in a reading of 95.1 compared to 96.8 a m

The estimate for output growth during the second quarter of 2017 was revised marginally higher by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  Their third and “final” attempt to quantify gross domestic product (GDP) indicates the economy grew 3.1 percent on an inflation-adjusted, annualized basis versus 3.0 in the second estimate.  For comparison, GDP increased just 1.2 percent from

Durable Goods Orders increased 1.7 percent in August 2017 according to the Census Bureau’s most recent release. This uptick, the second of the last three months, reversed just a portion of the 6.8 percent decrease in July. Transportation’s 4.9 percent surge led this indicator higher; excluding this component leaves an improvement of 0.2 percent.

All models are wrong, but some are useful – George E. P. Box

Sales of new homes fell in August 2017 according to the Census Bureau.  Transaction volume declined 3.4 percent versus July, falling to 560,000 units on an annualized basis.  Compared to a year earlier, 1.2 percent fewer contracts were signed in the period, declining for a second consecutive time.

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) contained evidence of economic slowing in August 2017.  This comprehensive indicator fell from 0.03 (upwardly revised from minus 0.01) to minus 0.31 and now sits at the lowest level since August 2016.  Moe importantly, its three-month moving average dropped to minus 0.04; this is the second time this calendar year it has fallen b

Economic activity should continue advancing in the near-term according to data from the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI).  This forward-looking indicator improved 0.4 percent in August 2017 after advancing 0.3 percent in July.  In the six months ending August 2017, the LEI advanced 2.3 percent (roughly 4.7 percent on an annualized basis), an improvement relative t