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When it comes to the American economy, the consumer is the primary driver.  In order for consumers to push output ahead, they need income to spend.

Sales of new homes continued falling in October 2018 according to the Census Bureau.  Sales of new single-family houses dropped 53,000 to 544,000 on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis.  This is 8.9 percent less than in September and 12.0 percent below the October 2017 figure of 618,000.

Economic output increased slightly in October 2018 according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI).  Their indicator with 85 components edged up to +0.24 from +0.14 in September.  Additionally, the three-month moving average increased marginally, rising to +0.31 from +0.30 which suggests a continued upward trajectory for the U.S. economy. 

Our economy has a cycle. During prosperous times, we describe being in an expansion. As the expansion peters out, it reaches a peak.  Immediately following the pinnacle, an economic contraction begins.  This decline continues until the trough is reached and a new expansion is ushered in.

I am thankful for the opportunity to know you.  You allow me to work in a fascinating field during a riveting time in history, and your friendship makes it even more rewarding.  I wish you a meaningful Thanksgiving.  We all have plenty for which to be thankful. ~Christopher Cox

Some of you who live on the eastern or western fringes of mainland U.S. may have noticed the culmination of America's pastime a couple of weeks ago.  Yes, the Boys of Summer wrapped up another hard-fought baseball battle for supremacy - the World Series (sans most of the world, of course).