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Americans’ income and spending improved in July 2018 according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  Their most recent release for Personal Income and Outlays show pay rising 0.3 percent in the period.  More importantly, after-tax pay rose 0.3 percent and consumption increased 0.4 percent. 

After poring over more complete data, the Bureau of Economic Analysis made a slight adjustment to their initial estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2018.  Initially reported as +4.1 percent on an annualized inflation-adjusted basis, they now believe output grew 4.2 percent.  This revised tally will get one more adjustment in a final revision due out later

National output growth moderated in July 2018 according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s National Activity Index.  This comprehensive indicator managed to hold above zero, reaching 0.13 to start the third quarter.

Orders for goods expected to last longer than three years declined according to the Census Bureau.  After June’s downwardly revised uptick of 0.7 percent (originally 1.0 percent), July’s figure fell 1.7 percent.  This is the third headline decline in the past four months. 

America’s stock markets attained a couple of milestones this week: the longest bull market ever and, ironically, the longest correction since 1961!  How can we reconcile the two?

Existing home sales suffered a decline in July 2018 according to the National Association of Realtors.  Dropping 0.7 percent, this housing market indicator has fallen for four consecutive months.  July’s tally now posts the slowest transaction pace in over two years.

Economic strength appears to have room to run according to the Conference Board’s July 2018 release of their Leading Economic Index (LEI).  This forward-looking indicator rose 0.6 percent in the period after rising 0.5 percent in June.  Recent strength bodes well for America’s economy in the second half of this year.