December 2018 Consumer Price Index
Submitted by Atlas Indicators Investment Advisors on January 22nd, 2019Price changes were rather minor in December 2018 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Their Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.1 percent at the headline and increased 1.9 percent in the past year. Removing the two volatile components (food and energy) leaves the core-CPI figure which increased 0.2 percent and 2.2 percent during the month and year respectively.
Gasoline’s sharp drop led the headline’s fall. During the final month of last year, petrol’s price plummeted 7.5 percent. Fuel oil was the other energy component to decline, dropping a whopping 11.4 percent. However, the indexes for natural gas and electricity rose.
Food was more expensive in the period, and it didn’t matter if you ate out of your own kitchen or at a restaurant. Food at home rose 0.3 percent and is up 1.6 percent in the past year. Likewise, food away from home increased 0.4 percent and has climbed 2.8 percent over the past twelve months.
Price changes in other areas of the economy were jumbled. Automobiles don’t seem to be driving inflation. New vehicle costs were unchanged, while used autos fell 0.2 percent. Apparel was unchanged in December as well after falling 0.9 percent in November. Medical care commodities dropped 0.2 percent as did transportation services. However, shelter costs rose 0.3 percent, and medical care services rose 0.4 percent.
Inflation remains a mixed bag. Yes, some things are rising, but the overall rate of change is not steep enough to keep the Federal Reserve bankers up at night. As you may recall from yesterday’s note (click here if you want to see it), recent events have caused even the most hawkish of the central bankers to tone down their screeching. Atlas doesn’t expect this iteration of CPI to induce any display of talons in the near future either.