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Small business confidence is high.  The Small Business Optimism Index improved during February 2018 from an already lofty tally in January.  Reaching 107.6, this is the second highest level in the indicator’s 45-year history.  Only the 1983 record high of 108.0 has been better.

Federal tax revenues fell, and outlays rose during February 2018 according to the latest from the Treasury Department.  Receipts dropped to $156 billion from $361 billion in January; this dramatic drop was expected since the first month of the year is normally a stronger period for tax collection.

As the earliest data on 2018 trade trickles in, Atlas is reminded of deceleration.  According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), America’s trade deficit worsened to $56.6 billion in January 2018.  Adding to the dour tone of this release, December’s shortfall intensified to $53.9 billion (originally $53.1 billion).  Since net exports are added to the other compo

“It would not be much of a universe if it wasn't home to the people you love.”  – Stephen Hawking

Economic output continued expanding in February 2018 according to the latest releases from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM).  Both of their surveys recorded tallies well above 50.0, a level indicative of no discernable change.  Manufacturing’s reading was 60.8, accelerating from 59.1.  Meanwhile, non-manufacturing decelerated a smidgen to 59.5 from 59.9 in January.

Income and spending improved to start 2018 according to Bureau of Economic Analysis.  Pay increased $64.7 billion (an increase of 0.4 percent) in the period.  After-tax pay rose even faster, surging 0.9 percent or $134.8 billion.  In addition to taking home more money, Americans spent more as well; personal consumption increased $32.4 billion, a rise of 0.2 percent. 

Fourth quarter 2017 gross domestic product (GDP) was revised down marginally after more complete data were gathered.  The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) downgraded the annualized growth rate to 2.5 percent from 2.6 percent in the first estimate.  With a change as minor as this, the overall picture of economic growth remains the same.

Friday’s employment report covering February 2018 was strong.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, America’s economy added 313,000 net new jobs.   This gain followed an upwardly revised count of 239,000 (originally 200,000) to start this year and an increase of another 15,000 for the December 2017 tally.  The unemployment rate held steady at just 4.1 per

Happy Friday! Markets continued swinging throughout the week and could probably use some rest this weekend. After a relatively quiet period last year, 2018 has ushered in a new regime of volatility. However, this is quite standard; it was 2017’s quiescence which was abnormal. Market indicators continue suggesting the path of least resistance is up, but Atlas is not complacent.

Orders for durable goods declined in January 2018 according to the Census Bureau.  Falling 3.7 percent to $239.7 billion, this indicator gave back all of December’s downwardly revised gain of 2.6 percent (originally 2.9 percent) and then some.  This most recent setback took the year-over-year number down from 11.3 percent to 6.8 percent, signaling some deceleration from the nati