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Happy Friday! Markets continued swinging throughout the week and could probably use some rest this weekend. After a relatively quiet period last year, 2018 has ushered in a new regime of volatility. However, this is quite standard; it was 2017’s quiescence which was abnormal. Market indicators continue suggesting the path of least resistance is up, but Atlas is not complacent.

Orders for durable goods declined in January 2018 according to the Census Bureau.  Falling 3.7 percent to $239.7 billion, this indicator gave back all of December’s downwardly revised gain of 2.6 percent (originally 2.9 percent) and then some.  This most recent setback took the year-over-year number down from 11.3 percent to 6.8 percent, signaling some deceleration from the nati

America’s economy was relatively steady in January 2018 according to the latest Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI).  This reading slowed to 0.12 from the downwardly revised count of 0.14 (originally 0.27).

Sales of new homes slowed in January 2018 according to the Census Bureau.  Signed contracts declined 7.8 percent to 593,000 units on an annualized basis.  However, December’s tally was revised upward to 643,000 units (originally 625,000).  This latest slowdown caused the year-over-year trend to fall into negative territory for the first time since August 2017. 

Atlas has been writing about the tepid nature of the current economic expansion for years.  Occasionally, there have been a couple of back-to-back quarters that harken to the trajectories of old (e.g., 2^nd & 3^rd quarter 2014 and 2^nd & 3^rd quarters 2017), but on balance America’s output growth has been lackluster, even the final quar

Atlas has noticed a pattern in recent economic data.  Our economy’s growth rate pushed through the 3.0 percent level (adjusted for inflation) during the middle quarters of last year; since then, the indicators have not been as strong.  Slower might best describe the recent developments.

Retail sales suffered a setback to start 2018 per the latest data from the Census Bureau.  The headline tally declined 0.3 percent, but it gets worse.  December’s figures were downwardly revised to unchanged after an initial reading of 0.4 percent which should push the nation’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) count lower when its revision is released later this

Hints of inflation are wafting through the economy per data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Their widely-watched Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.5 percent to start this year.  January’s year-over-year statistic posted 2.1 percent, matching December’s tally.  Core-CPI (excluding food and energy) managed an uptick of 0.3 percent to start 2018, and its year-ove

America’s budget ran a surplus in January 2018 according to the Treasury Department.  Partially boosted by calendar influenced special factors, the nation took in $49.2 billion more than it spent to start the year.  Since the first day of the year is a holiday, outlays for military active duty and retirement, Veteran’s benefits, and Supplemental Security Income were paid i

Global economic synchronicity continues according to the latest trade balance data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Both sides of the ledger increased during December 2017. America exported $3.5 billion more goods and services for a total of $203.4 billion. Meanwhile, our nation imported $256.5 billion, an uptick of $6.2 billion. As you might have figured, this led to a