Cycles of Life

A person's daily life is influenced by a complex interplay of various cycles. These range from biology to sociology as well as business/finance and economics.  Biologically, circadian rhythms are the 24-hour cycle which inform our internal clock.  They contained within circadian, ultradian rhythms are shorter and include things like our sleep or cycles of hunger and fullness.  Changing seasons are also governed by the earth’s cycle around the sun.  Often our days cycle around sociologic matters, starting with family settings in the morning and transitioning to friends and/or work dynamics as the day unfolds.  Business and economic cycles can seem to take place in the background as our daily lives pass, but we all contribute to them as well. 

Here we are on the final Friday of 2023, a few days removed from the shortest day of the solar cycle and the beginning of winter.  Soon we’ll be counting down to the start of the new year, setting off a year with many cycles of its own.  America will be fully in its election cycle (although this cycle’s duration seems to keep getting longer).  Congress will soon be dealing with the nation’s debt ceiling cycle once again.  Our news cycle is filled with stories of global conflict, a growing number of them as well.  All of these cycles will impact the business and financial cycles of the coming year.

We’re living in a fascinating cycle.  Unprecedented responses from central banks and governments around the globe to the Covid-19 pandemic were intended to minimize damage to the economy’s cycle.  Like sound waves bouncing off canyon walls, the echoes of these responses still reverberate.  For instance, the inflationary cycle America faces likely originated from the monetary and fiscal stimuli.  Of course, the debt-ceiling cycle is also influenced by fiscal actions.  Other unintended consequences could be unfolding as well.  Just because they were unintended, that does not mean that they have to be negative.  Whatever 2024 holds, Atlas will continue monitoring these cycles with an eye toward managing the risks they may manifest while remaining optimistic that the worst is behind us.  We’ll start again next year.