Business Cycle

Copper is an important base metal in the global economy.  It’s one of the most ductile materials the earth provides, making it perfect for wiring because it is an efficient conductor of electricity.

Our economy is hardly flying on one engine, but the international radio distress signal seems appropriate.  Why?  May is right around the corner, and the Federal Reserve will likely begin tightening its monetary policy during the period.  On Wednesday, the central bank unveiled its plan to shrink their balance sheet.

Resort towns are known for their boom-and-bust cycles.  When financial crises materialize, ownership of second and third properties are the first to be sacrificed by people impacted in the downturn.  One resort town in Southern California, however, managed to escape the up portion of these cycles, pretty much falling from a peak in the 1960s.  Salton Sea was once a destination fo

Humans and our ancestors have used tools for millions of years.  They started with rudimentary instruments made of rocks (hence the stone age moniker).  Suddenly, around 12,000 years ago, humans began to harness copper.  Since then, we and this utilitarian metal have maintained a longstanding relationship.  It was the first metal worked by our ancestors and is still an impor

Lawn bowling is a wonderful pastime.  In California, the weather is generally nice enough to play outdoors, but there are parts of the nation (and the globe for that matter) which offer indoor greens.  It’s leisurely but provides something for those with a competitive spirit as well.  In short, the goal is to roll your asymmetric bowl down the green toward the jack (a white

Here we are at the beginning of the Fourth of July Holiday weekend in America.  With a long weekend, many will visit friends and family.  With travel volumes expected to be elevated, one’s odds of finding themselves in traffic is high.  You know that feeling; you are motoring down the highway, just slightly above the posted speed limit, and then the brake lights light up.&n

Cycles govern much of our world.  The Beatles taught us that when the sun moves lower in the sky for a portion of the year we shouldn’t fret about the cold lasting forever.  Economies also ebb and flow as the business cycle moves from periods of expansion into usually relatively short intervals of contraction.  Even breathing is cyclical. 

Comprehensive and frequent are two of the best characteristics for an economic indicator.  The Chicago Branch of the Federal Reserve produces one that has both attributes: The National Activity Index.

Our economy oscillates irregularly between expansion or contraction.  It is often illustrated using a stylized symmetric sine wave, demonstrating the virtuous and vicious portions of the economy depending on the direction of the curve.  Unfortunately, the actual cycle is not so smooth.