Business Cycle

So far, the banking challenges of 2023 have been far from catastrophic.

Telling stories is what humans do.  No two people have an exact telling about the same event.  Thoughts on the economy are no different.  There is a “Truth” but none of us have the luxury of knowing all.  Instead, we each have our own truths.  These aren’t intentionally deceptive.  Instead, they become manufactured and colored by our own experienc

Weather and season often offer wonderful metaphors for economics.  Recent storms sweeping the nation are no exception.  Here in Southern California, we’ve had a real winter (by California standards, of course) for the first time in what seems like years; take the above photo from Jerry S.

Economic indicators come is three varieties, differentiated by their timing.  Some offer an insight into the future.  We call these leading indicators; for instance, new orders data help us see a bit over the horizon.  Others tell us more about the here and now; these are coincident indicators like industrial production or personal income.  Finally, there are lagging indicat

Superlatives are easy to use but difficult to defend, so Atlas won’t use one here.  We are willing, however, to use a technical phrase when describing 2022: it sucked.  Right out of the gate, the market peaked on the first trading day of the year and then trended lower for the remainder.  A similar pattern developed in the bond market.  Providing the other bookend for

We haven’t quite reached the shortest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, but we are getting close. It’s been nearly six months since the longest day of 2022 passed us. We don’t fret when the days begin shortening, nor trot out world-ending conspiracies once the nights become longer than the days immediately following the autumnal equinox. But why not?

Growing up I had many friends with musical talents. As an adult I partnered up with a musician to start Atlas. Those who were not around when Atlas was on Carnelian missed guitar jam sessions with J R.

Trends never move in straight lines. This is certainly observable in markets. Styles experience the same phenomenon. Perhaps the kernel of a trend is revealed at a fashion show, but it takes the greater population a little time to embrace the new look. A similar pattern is emerging for the globe as it tries trending back to something more normal from the depths of the pandem

Every six weeks the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets to discuss monetary policies and to make any changes to it which they deem necessary.  Their latest two-day meeting ended last Wednesday with the 12-person committee unanimously voting to raise the overnight lending rate banks charge each other by 0.75 percentage points; the range for this type of loan now stands at 3.75 - 4.0

There are many sticking points in the American economy these days.  Inflation comes to mind.  So does our Federal Reserve.  Or what about the growth rate of the economy?  It’s not quite molasses-like just yet, but the pace of output is gaining viscosity.