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Short-Duration Rose

Submitted by Atlas Indicators Investment Advisors on December 31st, 2025

In Shakespeare’s Romeo and Juliet, Juliet reflects that “a rose by any other name would smell as sweet.” In other words, the essence of the thing (in her case Romeo), not the label, is what truly matters. In the same way, a regular schedule of Treasury purchases that expands reserves, eases funding conditions, and supports risk assets retains its economic fragrance no matter what Chair Jerome Powell calls it. The Federal Reserve’s latest “reserve management purchases” (RMPs) are a case in point. The mechanics look and feel strikingly similar to the early stages of a quantitative easing program focused on the front end, yet the Fed’s official name for the effort works hard to avoid the label “QE.”

 

The Fed stressed that RMPs are “technical,” aimed at keeping reserves comfortably “ample” to ensure smooth money‑market functioning, rather than delivering an explicit easing signal. Yet from the perspective of financial conditions, what may matter most is that the central bank has shifted from shrinking its portfolio to adding to it, thus pushing liquidity back into the system. The marginal investor, like Juliet, has little reason to care how the policy is branded as long as the liquidity channel and the confidence channel begin to respond as they did under prior QE regimes.

 

The lesson going forward could be to focus less on semantics and more on the transmission (i.e., putting cash into the system). When the Fed is a reliable buyer of Treasuries and net reserves are rising, interest rates tend to fall and banks could become more inclined to lend, further supporting the current economic expansion. Short‑duration assets become the “Short-Duration Rose”: not officially QE, but carrying much of the same scent for risk taking, the yield curve shape, and other asset behaviors.

 

Of course, Romeo and Juliet was really a tragedy. 

Tags:
  • Federal Reserve
  • FOMC
  • Friday
  • Friday Fun
  • Jerome Powell
  • RMPs

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