Federal Reserve

All models are wrong, but some are useful – George E. P. Box

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) contained evidence of economic slowing in August 2017.  This comprehensive indicator fell from 0.03 (upwardly revised from minus 0.01) to minus 0.31 and now sits at the lowest level since August 2016.  Moe importantly, its three-month moving average dropped to minus 0.04; this is the second time this calendar year it has fallen b

Industrial Production is the latest economic indicator to disappoint.  American output of all physically made goods declined 0.9 percent in August 2017 according to the Federal Reserve.  This setback follows six consecutive months of increases.  The central bank estimates Hurricane Harvey had an impact on the figure, reducing the total by 0.75 percentage point. 

Prices increased for Americans in August 2017 according to the Consumer Price Index from the Bureau of Labor Statics.  Rising 0.4 percent, this latest increase follows an uptick of 0.1 percent in July.  Year-over-year, this price proxy increased 1.9 percent, accelerating from 1.7 percent a month earlier.  Core inflation which excludes food and energy increased at a more subdued p

Prices paid by producers and wholesalers rose 0.2 percent in August 2017. This most recent release followed a slight decline a month earlier and an increase of 0.1 percent in June. Versus a year ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index was 2.4 percent higher, accelerating from 1.9 percent in July.

America’s economy grew faster in the second quarter of 2017 than initially tallied according to data regarding gross domestic product (GDP) from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  After more complete information was collected, it now appears that output increased at the fastest pace since the first quarter of 2015.  Growing 3.0 percent on an inflation-adjusted annualized basis (i

Economic output moved roughly in-line with its historical trend in July according to data from the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI). This comprehensive gauge of the economy declined to -0.01 as the second half of 2017 got underway, down from +0.16 in June.

America’s output of physically made goods rose for a second consecutive month in July 2017 according to Industrial Production figures produced by the Federal Reserve.  Rising 0.2 percent, this cyclically sensitive indicator decelerated from 0.4 percent in June.  Despite the monthly slowdown, its year over year tally reached 2.2 percent, the best level since January 2015.

Proprietors of small companies are feeling better about the future for the first time in five months according to the National Federation of Independent Business.