Federal Reserve

Economic output improved in September according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index.  Results from this comprehensive study of the economy jumped to 0.17 from the downwardly revised count of minus 0.37 (originally minus 0.31) in August.  Despite the monthly turnaround, the three-month moving average stayed below zero and matched the prior period’s revised tally of minus 0

Industrial production was positive in the final month of the third quarter after pretty dismal showings in the prior two periods.  Output of all physically made goods increased 0.3 percent in September 2017 according to the Federal Reserve.  This uptick was not enough to recapture the losses from July and August.  July was downwardly revised to -0.6 percent (originally -0.1 perce

Industrial production was positive in the final month of the third quarter after pretty dismal showings in the prior two periods.  Output of all physically made goods increased 0.3 percent in September 2017 according to the Federal Reserve.  This uptick was not enough to recapture the losses from July and August.  July was downwardly revised to -0.6 percent (originally -0.1 perce

Industrial production was positive in the final month of the third quarter after pretty dismal showings in the prior two periods.  Output of all physically made goods increased 0.3 percent in September 2017 according to the Federal Reserve.  This uptick was not enough to recapture the losses from July and August.  July was downwardly revised to -0.6 percent (originally -0.1 perce

Price gains accelerated in September 2017 according to headline figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index (CPI). Versus a month earlier, prices rose 0.5 percent, and this jump follows an increase of 0.4 percent in August. Compared to a year earlier, CPI is 2.2 percent higher, speeding up from 1.9 percent in the middle of the third quarter.

Prices paid by producers and wholesalers continued rising in September 2017 according to the Producer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  After increasing 0.2 percent in August, this measure of inflation advanced 0.4 percent to end the third quarter.  It has now increased 2.6 percent versus a year ago, the steepest annual increase since February 2012.  Costs

Income and outlays improved in August 2017 according to the most recent data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal income rose 0.2 percent or $28.6 billion. Subtracting taxes, disposable personal income (DPI) increased $14.9 billion or 0.1 percent.

All models are wrong, but some are useful – George E. P. Box

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) contained evidence of economic slowing in August 2017.  This comprehensive indicator fell from 0.03 (upwardly revised from minus 0.01) to minus 0.31 and now sits at the lowest level since August 2016.  Moe importantly, its three-month moving average dropped to minus 0.04; this is the second time this calendar year it has fallen b

Industrial Production is the latest economic indicator to disappoint.  American output of all physically made goods declined 0.9 percent in August 2017 according to the Federal Reserve.  This setback follows six consecutive months of increases.  The central bank estimates Hurricane Harvey had an impact on the figure, reducing the total by 0.75 percentage point.