Thin Data, Not Thin Ice
Submitted by Atlas Indicators Investment Advisors on February 5th, 2026
America’s economy is not skating on thin ice, but it does feel a bit like the ice could be more solid. It’s frozen enough to etch its direction of travel across the surface, but there are hints of fragility beneath which should not be ignored, especially if one is inclined to do a quad axel.
Today is jobs Friday; the day the Bureau of Labor Statistics is supposed to release their latest data on America’s employment situation. However, the partial government shutdown from earlier this week is keeping the information from being released. This is one of the most widely watched indicators gauging the momentum of the economy, yet it is unavailable. Again, not thin ice but it could be more solid.
In just a few hours, Italy will begin the opening ceremony in Milan for the 2026 Winter Olympics. The world’s best are gathering to put on performances which will be highly scrutinized. Some of this scrutinizing will come by way of official judges and parts of it by viewers at home, the latter being largely unfamiliar with the rigor required to reach such lofty levels. Half-frozen ice is not acceptable nor is not knowing the criteria of how judges will score an athlete’s performance.
In much the same way, decision-makers across the country are being asked to perform at a high level without a clear, up-to-date understanding of the overall economy. Investors, business leaders, and workers need to advance their own interests, but the lack of fresh data this morning means they’re doing so without fully understanding the environment beneath their skates. Confidence in the longer-term vigor of America remains justified, but actors within the economy are all in the middle of their routines hoping the ice beneath them holds as they try sticking their landing.
