Revisionist History

Our nation is in the midst of history.  We are under 80 days from the next election, including that of the future President of the United States.  Campaigns are in full swing, and so is story telling.  History is being told with a bit of revisionist flair, not unlike prior campaigns filled with promises and less-than-accurate recollections of earlier accomplishments.

While the two primary parties dream up their interpretation of the past, the Department of Labor has been doing some revising of its own.  Each year in order to ensure an accurate telling of the past, it issues revisions to the past year of labor market data.  This go around was not kind.  With more complete data collected, it now appears that America created 818,000 fewer jobs from April 2023 through March of this year than initially tallied.  That’s a downward revision of 30 percent. Prior to the release, it was understood that America created 2.9 million jobs over the twelve-month period ending in March.  Instead, it was 2.08 million, marking the largest revision since 2009.

History is often written by the victors, which is probably not the most accurate or objective way to understand the past.  Politicians will continue to massage their stories of the past and promises of the future.  In economics, we all win when the data are as accurate as possible.  This will allow us to better understand the need for policies and allow for more informed decision making.  The Federal Reserve is currently meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming at their annual symposium hosted by the Kansas City branch of the central bank.  Soon they’ll need to take off their waders and don an outfit more appropriate for a discussion about the Fed Funds Rate.  When they do, they’ll need to incorporate this clearer understanding of the labor market and its implications for the economy at large.