November 2025 National Association for Business Economics

The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) is a professional group of applied economists, strategists, and policy specialists who use economic analysis in business, finance, government, and academia. Each month, NABE publishes an economic outlook. The most recent edition, the November 2025 NABE Outlook Survey, suggests the U.S. economy is on a modestly stronger path than previously expected.

Survey respondents anticipate that resilient consumer spending and increased business investment will help support growth. However, they also concede that higher tariffs and persistent inflation remain significant challenges. Overall, the survey indicates that while the economy is slowing from its earlier post-pandemic strength, it is still expected to avoid a near-term recession.

Inflation is forecasted to decline gradually. The median projection places Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation at about 2.9% by the end of 2025 and 2.6% by late 2026, still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Most respondents believe that recently imposed tariffs will add approximately 0.25 to 0.75 percentage points to price growth, making trade policy a notable risk for inflation. In response, the consensus expects the Federal Reserve to begin modestly lowering interest rates, starting with a quarter-point cut next week and further limited easing in 2026.

Labor market expectations are softer than in previous surveys. Job growth is projected to slow significantly, and unemployment is expected to rise to around 4.5% in 2026. Forecasters demonstrated considerable uncertainty about labor demand, as shown by a wide range of payroll growth estimates. Nevertheless, most panelists still assign a relatively low probability to a recession in the coming year, viewing the expansion as cooling but fundamentally resilient.