Capturing Inflation
Submitted by Atlas Indicators Investment Advisors on April 2nd, 2026
A new documentary was released last month called Capturing Bigfoot. Atlas’ film critics have yet to review the 103-minute piece, but its title inspired this note. In the film, the famous Patterson-Gimlin clip (who knew it had such a formal name) is revisited along with newly discovered footage. For some, this film may confirm their long-held beliefs on the subject, while others may have their hopes dashed. The entire story of Bigfoot depends on this shaky, 59-second film from 1967.
For years now, our Federal Reserve has been attempting to capture inflation. After exceptionally loose fiscal (federal government) and monetary (central bank) policies, prices surged and have continued to rise at a level greater than desired by the Federal Reserve. There have been a few snapshots of data presented by various powers that be suggesting inflation has been vanquished (e.g., prices of eggs are down), but greater proof remains elusive. No matter how many times Jerome Powell declared it transitory, casual observers tell a different tale.
Interpretations of the same film and data sources are generating different conclusions. Each interpreter selects a few frames, picks a favored measure (maybe it excludes food and energy or is an annualized version of a three-month average) and spins the narrative in a way that is beneficial to their side of history. But unlike the Patterson-Gimlin clip, this film is still rolling. Each month we get new data. The most recent came out Wednesday, April 1st, and it does not suggest inflation has been captured. Instead, the prices index within the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing report shows a steep acceleration. And this surge is on the heels of an already elevated level which occurred during the 17 months prior to March 2026. Until wages rise sufficiently to make the typical American feel like they are back to being able to afford the life they once had, claims that inflation has been defeated are no more dependable than shaky footage claiming to prove that an otherwise unobserved creature has been discovered.
