More Than a Spoonful of Heat

July 2023 was hot.  Numbers are still being crunched, but it’s likely to go down as the warmest on record.  That could set up for an interesting rest of the summer if the heat doesn’t back down some.  According to a group of researchers at University of California, Berkeley, (Solomon M. Hsiang, Marshall Burke, and Edward Miguel) there could be a link between rising temperatures and various forms of conflict.  Click here to see their research.

Their study shows measurable increases in violence for every standard deviation change in warmer temperatures (as an aside, they find a similar link to an uptick in rainfall).   First let’s review standard deviation.  Imagine you measure the height of all the people you know.  Some are taller, and others shorter.  Standard deviation is way to understand how spread out or close together their heights are.  If everyone you know is similar in height, the deviation would be small, but if those you measure include say toddlers to professional basketball players, then the deviation would be larger.  In short, standard deviation is a way of telling how similar components of a sample are.

The globe’s average temperature is typically pretty stable, so it has a small standard deviation.  That means even small increases could change how people interact.  These researchers found that interpersonal violence rises four percent when the temperature deviates from its average by one standard deviation.  Similarly, intergroup conflict increases 14 percent during the same increase in temperature.  To be clear, they are not arguing the temperature causes conflict but instead suggest changes in climate alter how certain interactions occur which may increase the odds of conflict.

As we continue on through the heat, perhaps we can all take a deep breath more frequently.  Remember, winter will be here before you know it.  Here in California, we’re expected to have a lot of rain due to the El Nino conditions developing in the Pacific.  Oh wait, they that said rain could have a similar effect if it is statistically greater than normal.  Well, may listening to Summer in the City here by The Lovin’ Spoonful will take your mind off any agitation you might be feeling.  If not, just wait until night fall when it’s a different world.