November 2018 Employment Situation

America’s economy continued adding jobs in November 2018 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Employers hired 155,000 net new workers, slowing from the downwardly revised count of 237,000 (originally 250,000) in October.  Additionally, the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent for the third month in a row as the number of unemployed persons was little changed at 6.0 million.

Other details beneath the headline were not very strong.  For instance, the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased 0.1 hour to 34.4 hours.  On its own, six minutes does not sound like much, but when they are multiplied by over 258 million workers, it adds up.  Also, declining to $940.84 from $941.51, average weekly earnings fell.  Other worsening data points include the unemployment rates for those with some college as well as those with a college degree.  Finally, the index of aggregate weekly hours dropped.

There were some signs of labor force deterioration in this iteration of employment data despite headlines that were relatively sanguine.  By no stretch was this release a disaster, but there were enough rough patches in the details that Atlas felt compelled to point them out.  Historically labor data has been a lagging indicator since employers are reluctant to add new employees when economic upturns begin and are slow to shrink payrolls after the business cycle peaks and begins turning lower since the availability of qualified labor tends to be in short supply during that time.  In short, Atlas is putting this indicator in the growing pile of those which are decelerating.