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Copper Age

Submitted by Atlas Indicators Investment Advisors on September 30th, 2024

Growing up there was a guy in the neighborhood who worked in some form of construction.  He would often come home with copper wires, the type used overhead for transmitting electricity.  I was in elementary school, so he never told me why it was in his possession, but he would strip the wire coating off with a large knife in his back yard and recycle the copper. I began to understand the value of the metal after watching him chase down and pummel a person who stole from his collection.

 

Copper is often referred to as having a “Ph.D. in economics” because its price trends tend to ebb and flow along with the global business cycle. This is due to copper’s widespread use in various industries, including construction, electronics, and transportation. When the demand for copper is high, it usually signals economic growth and industrial activity.

 

For the modern economy, complete with cleaner versions of energy, to have a fighting chance, it will need more copper.  A recent study from S&P Global went so far as to suggest that the amount of copper needed in the next 25 years will add up to more than all the copper mined in human history.  Goldman Sachs has even suggested that it is “the new oil.”  An upward shifting demand curve which is not met with an equal shift in supply would, in theory, cause the price of the element to rise. 

 

Copper theft is also on the rise.  According to this New York Times article, over 184 miles of electrical wiring have gone missing in Las Vegas in the past two years.  Or what about the marvelous 6th Street bridge in Los Angeles; it was years in the making but only remained lit for a short period of time as the lines were stolen.  It’s not just the U.S., however.  This article from Wired indicates South African utility companies are being targeted by gangs copper.

 

The role of copper is becoming increasingly crucial, especially as the need for energy rises with new technologies.  Around 5500 BCE, humans began transitioning away from the Stone Age, helped by copper tools.  While the tale is long in the tooth, copper’s story is far from over; it's a narrative that continues to unfold in the streets of our cities and the wiring of our innovations.  The surge in copper theft underscores a darker side of its demand, disrupting infrastructure and development, offering a stark reminder that as economies innovate and build, they must also protect and sustain the resources underpinning progress.

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