April 2018 Retail Sales

Retail sales improved to start the second quarter of 2018 according to data from the Census Bureau. Consumers spent 0.3 percent more in April than in the prior period.  However, the monthly uptick was slower than March’s upwardly revised tally of 0.8 percent (originally 0.6 percent).  This important indicator’s trend slowed as well with the year-over-year figure falling 0.2 percentage points to 4.7 percent. 

Most of the categories were higher.  Clothing purchases were in vogue during the month, increasing 1.4 percent.  Furniture & home furnishing stores added 0.8 percent to their revenues as did gasoline stations which were aided by rising prices at the pump.  Nonstore retailers increased 0.6 percent and are up 9.6 percent in the past twelve months.  Additionally, grocery stores added another 0.5 percent to their receipts.  Finally, the miscellaneous category added 0.9 percent

Notwithstanding the relatively pervasive positivity in the report, Atlas’ favorite measure edged lower.  Americans spent 0.3 percent less at food services and drinking places.  Despite the monthly setback, this category’s annual trend accelerated to 3.8 percent from 3.1 percent, giving Atlas some comfort in the face of the segment’s disappointing start to the quarter.  Atlas watches this line of the report closely because it represents discretionary spending which can be replaced easily if consumers start feeling less confident about their future.  For now, this setback is only minor, creating no need for concern. 

Overall, this is a relatively good release.  It demonstrates America’s consumer-based economy continues climbing.  Many of indicators we follow suggest a similar conclusion is warranted.  Small businesses and consumers are feeling confident.  Employers continue adding to payrolls, and inflation is moderate.  Our economy is healthy.