July 2017 Consumer Attitudes

Consumer attitudes are mixed according to two popular surveys.  Per Consumer Confidence numbers from the Conference Board, Americans felt better in July 2017 than a month earlier as it enjoyed a 3.8 point jump from the downwardly revised tally of 117.3 (originally 118.9) to 121.1 in the period.  However, the Consumer Sentiment Index produced by the University of Michigan was decidedly lower, falling to 93.4 versus 95.1 at the end of June. 

Data from the Conference Board suggests consumers are more optimistic than nearly any time in the past 17 years.  This measure of attitudes reached a recent peak in March of 124.9 and is now just a few points below with a near-term bias to the upside.  This indicator is nearly 20 points higher than its pre-election level in October 2016.  Labor market enthusiasm pushed the index upward in July.  Just 18.0 percent of those surveyed feel jobs are currently “hard to get.”  Adding to this relative euphoria, the number of respondents indicating there will be “fewer job openings six months from now” fell.  Unfortunately, its counterpart was not as rosy. 

Souring outlooks led the University’s tally to decline as this measure of attitudes continues its recent trend lower.  Expectations weakened for a second month in a row, down 3.4 points to 80.5 which follows a decline of nearly 4 points in June.  Somewhat offsetting this forward looking component, the current conditions measure increased 1 point, but this not enough to move the headline needle much. 

For now it appears consumer attitudes are mixed.  Sadly, this is a downgrade from the immediate post-election period when attitudes were improving across both measures.  To help understand how Americans are feeling since these to bellwethers contradict each other this go-round, Atlas peeked at a third measure released each week by Bloomberg; their Comfort Index has been gloomier as of late, suggesting consumers are more likely feeling less sanguine than was the case at the start of this year.