Alternative Employment Stats

Before we get the final job report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for last decade (it’ll be out at 5:30 AM in California), let’s look at a survey the New York Federal Reserve does every four months which also sheds light on employment.  Their Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) includes questions about job searches, annual income, labor force longevity, and what it would take for a person to leave a current employer.  The survey, which started in March 2014, is surveys 1,300 people and is designed to represent the nation. 

Compensation looks strong.  The average full-time salary increased to $69,181 in November 2019.  This is up 3.4 percent from July’s tally of $66,935.  Admittedly, this is not the oldest survey out there, but November’s salary figure is the best on record.

Job searching reached a new low.  The percent of people reporting that they looked for work in the prior four weeks reached just 16.2 percent.  For some context, this figure was nearly double that (31.7 percent) when the survey was first taken.  March of 2014 was nearly five years after the end of the Great Recession.  As you can see above, it is now well below its previous nadir of 18.1 percent in March of 2018. 

The next two items are interesting because they are unlike other data in the BLS’s monthly survey.  The SCE wants to know how much a potential employer would need to pay for an employee of another firm to leave.  They call this the reservation wage.  The average price to lure away a full-time employee is now $64,330, rising from $62,194 in July.  This is a new high for this series as well.   Finally, they ask respondents about the likelihood of working beyond age 62.  This tally took a large jump as well, yet Atlas thinks it’s still too low.  Just 55.5 percent believe they’ll need to work beyond 62, up from 52.7 in the last count.  Hopefully the other 44.5 percent saved enough!

Employment continues to be one of the bright spots in the economy.  It’s a good thing too because America thrives on consumption. And buying goods and services is always easier when a person is employed.